| Abstract | U novije vrijeme, poslovna kriza je sve češći problem koji zahvaća svako poduzeće u nekom periodu njegovog poslovanja. Kad poduzeće zahvati kriza, presudan je utjecaj kriznog menadžmenta koji mora primijeniti odgovarajuću strategiju da bi poduzeće što bezbolnije izašlo iz krize. Ako se na krizu u poslovanju ne djeluje pravovremeno i bez primjene odgovarajućih strategija, poduzeće može doživjeti bankrot. Najbolji način za izbjegavanje katastrofalnih posljedica poslovne krize je njeno rano otkrivanje, kako bi se na nju moglo pravovremeno djelovati.
Upravo su sustavi za rano otkrivanje poslovne krize, prezentirani Altmanovim i BEX modelom, uz same krize, bili u fokusu ovoga rada. Cilj istraživanja bio je ispitati točnost, upotrebljivost te korisnost ovih dvaju pokazatelja ranih signala neuspjeha poduzeća, te pokazati koji je, od navedena dva modela, prije ukazivao na krizu i koji bolje predviđa budućnost poduzeća. U istraživanju je obrađeno poslovanje devet poduzeća u razdoblju od 2009. do 2016. Neka poduzeća su u tom periodu upala u krizu, dok neka uspješno posluju. Analizirano je koje su strategije poduzeća koristila kako bi odgovorila na probleme u poslovanju. Također, izračunate su vrijednosti BEX indeksa i Z-score za svako poduzeće kako bi se utvrdilo koji od pokazatelja je ranije i preciznije ukazivao na probleme u poslovanju promatranih poduzeća.
Istraživanje je pokazalo da je BEX indeks bolje predvidio poslovanje uspješnih poduzeća, dok se Z-score pokazao boljim u predviđanju bankrota kod poduzeća koja imaju poteškoća u poslovanju. BEX indeks i Z-score su svakako korisni alati u predviđanju budućnosti poslovanja poduzeća, ali ih treba uzeti sa rezervom, jer nijedan od ovih pokazatelja ne može sa dovoljnom sigurnošću predvidjeti budućnost poduzeća i moguću poslovnu krizu. Stoga je potrebno uzeti u obzir i druge parametre iz kojih se može izvući zaključak o budućem poslovanju poduzeća, jer je precizno predviđanje budućnosti poslovanja ključno za izbjegavanje krize. |
| Abstract (english) | Nowadays, a business crisis is an increasingly common problem that affects every company in some period of its business. When a company is affected by the crisis, the impact of crisis management is crucial, since the management has to apply appropriate strategy in order to lead the company out of the crisis. If a business crisis is not dealt with in time and if management fails to apply appropriate strategies, the company may experience bankruptcy. The best way to avoid the catastrophic consequences of a business crisis is its early detection, so the management is able to react promptly to the challenges of the crisis.
Besides the crisis, in the focus of this paper are the systems for early detection of a business crisis, presented by Altman and the BEX model. The aim of the research has been to examine the accuracy, usability and usefulness of these two indicators of early signs of company failure and to show which of the two models earlier predicts the crisis and which better predicts the company's future. The analysis has been carried out for nine companies for the period from 2009 to 2016. During that period some companies were deaply affected by the crisis, while for some companies the business was rather successful. Analysis comprises strategies that were applied in order to respond on business issues that may lead to a crisis. Also, the values of the BEX index and the Z-score for each company have been calculated to determine which of them indicated earlier and more precisely the problems in the companies business.
The research has shown that the BEX index has better predicted the business of successful businesses, while the Z-score showed better predictions of bankruptcy in companies with business difficulties. The BEX index and the Z-score are certainly useful tools in predicting the future of a company's business but they should be taken with the reserve, because none of these indicators can predict the future of the business and the possible business crisis with sufficient certainty. It is therefore necessary to take into account other parameters from which it is possible to draw a conclusion about the future of a company’s business, because precise prediction of the business future is crucial for avoiding the crisis. |
