undergraduate thesis
KREDITNE REJTING AGENCIJE I NJIHOV ZNAČAJ NA GOSPODARSTVA RAZVIJENIH ZEMALJA

Josip Ćorić (2016)
University of Split
Faculty of economics Split
Metadata
TitleKREDITNE REJTING AGENCIJE I NJIHOV ZNAČAJ NA GOSPODARSTVA RAZVIJENIH ZEMALJA : završni rad
AuthorJosip Ćorić
Mentor(s)Josip Visković (thesis advisor)
Abstract
U ovom radu se ispituje koliki značaj imaju agencije za kreditni rejting kada je u pitanju zaduživanje razvijenih zemalja. Teorijski je kreditni rejting u uskoj vezi s kamatnom stopom te će promjena rejtinga utjecati na stopu zaduživanja države što u konačnici dovodi i do promjene kod privatnog sektora, jer nitko unutar države ne može imati viši rejting nego ona sama. Kada dolazi do promjene rejtinga na niže dolazi i do povišenja cijene novca, tj. skupljeg zaduživanja iz razloga što je sada ta država rizičnije nego prije. Empirijsko istraživanje je potvrdilo utjecaj promjene rejtinga na kamatnu stopu i udio duga u BDP-u. Naime, kod promatranih subjekata neposredno nakon objave o promjeni rejtinga od strane rejting agencija, dolazi i do pomicanja razine kamatne stope, te je ona najviše oscilirala kada je u pitanju česta promjena rejtinga. Što se tiče udjela duga, tu je isto primjetna negativna korelacija. Kada je već došlo do promjene ranga promatranih subjekata došlo je i promijene pristupa tržištu kapitala. Tako kada su pala gospodarstva, a s njima i rejting promatrane države su morale potražiti drugi izvor financiranja tj. zaduživanje. Kako su kamatne stope rasle to je zaduživanje bilo skuplje, a kako je gospodarstvo padalo takva vrsta financiranja je bila sve neophodnija. Tako je dolazilo do povećanja udjela duga u BDP-u sve dok se gospodarstvo nije stabiliziralo što je rezultiralo nižom kamatnom stopom uz nepromijenjen rejting. Kod oba promatrana subjekta došlo je do promjene cijene zaduživanja na niže iako je rejting ostao isti, što govori da ako se stabilizira situacija u državi, vraća se povjerenje investitora te samim time i želja da se investira u tu državu, što znači da rejtinzi nakon nekog vremena izgube prociklično djelovanje.
KeywordsCredit rating agencies effect on selected factors procyclical effect.
GranterUniversity of Split
Faculty of economics Split
PlaceSplit
StateCroatia
Scientific field, discipline, subdisciplineSOCIAL SCIENCES
Economics
Finance
Study programme typeuniversity
Study levelundergraduate
Study programmeEconomics
Academic title abbreviationuniv. bacc. oec.
Genreundergraduate thesis
Language Croatian
Defense date2016
Parallel abstract (English)
This paper tries to quantify the significance of credit rating agencies when it comes to developed countries and their need for money. Theoretically, credit rating is closely related with the interest rate and a change in the rating will affect the price of borrowing money that government has to pay (interest rate), and that causes changes in the private sector because nobody within the country can have higher rating than the country itself does. When a situation like lowering the credit rating of the country happens it causes a growth of the interest rate because the risk is higher now for those who lend the money. The empirical research confirms the correlation between interest rate and the share of debt in the GDP. In fact, the countries we observed had an immediate response to the change of rating by rating agencies, and interest rate changed almost simultaneously. Furthermore, the interest rate oscillated more the more often credit rating changed. As far as the share of debt in GDP is concerned, the negative correlation is also visible. When the change of rating had already happened, at the same time the access to the market of capital changed. When the economies around the world collapsed, the credit rating also collapsed and they had to find another source of financial resources. By doing so, the share of debt in GDP kept growing until the economies were more stabilized and that resulted in the decline of the interest rate while the credit rating of the country remained unchanged. With the both countries that were observed it led to change in price (the decline of interest rate) of financial resources they borrowed, even though the credit rating remained the same. That means that, if the economy stabilizes in the country, the trust of the investors rises and with that they are more willing to invest in that country. Besides this, there is a visible negative correlation between the credit rating and the rate of unemployment in the country.
Parallel keywords (Croatian)Agencije za kreditni rejting uvjeti zaduživanja procikličnost rejting.
Resource typetext
Access conditionOpen access
Terms of usehttp://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/
URN:NBNhttps://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:124:011440
CommitterIvana Gizdić