| Abstract | Pandemiji 21. st., uzrokovanoj pojavom novog virusa COVID-19, prethodile su druge epidemije/pandemija. Najznačajnija je kuga, takozvana „Crna smrt”, koja se u par navrata kroz povijest pojavila, a zna se i danas na Istoku, i ostavila za sobom dosad najveću štetu po čovječanstvo. Osim što je bolest napravila velik utisak na ljudski opstanak, također je dovela i do neočekivanih ekonomskih posljedica. Druga, španjolska gripa, koja zasad najviše nalikuje COVID-19 situaciji, pojavila se početkom 20. stoljeća u vrijeme Prvog svjetskog rata. Španjolska gripa je odnijela 50 do 100 milijuna ljudskih života, no taj broj je teško precizno procijeniti zbog rata, te je također ostavila i ekonomske posljedice. COVID-19 kriza je započela početkom 2020. godine kada se prvi put pojavila u Kini u provinciji Hubei, gradu Wuhanu gdje su bili zabilježeni prvi slučajevi COVID-19 te se smatra da je od tamo i započelo globalno širenje najčešće preko zrakoplovnih i morskih ruta. Do sada je zabilježeno više od 25 milijuna slučajeva širom svijeta, što je rezultiralo s više od 843 000 smrtnih slučajeva te 16,4 milijuna oporavljenih, te su najteže pogođene zarazom zemlje: SAD, Indija, Brazil, Rusija i Peru, koje same broje preko 16 milijuna zaraženih osoba. COVID-19 je potaknuo vlade uvođenje brojnih mjera kojima bi se virusna zaraza smanjila, što je u pogledu ekonomije dovelo do smanjenja ili obustave izvoza, otpuštanja radnika i manjka materijala za daljnju proizvodnju. U prvom i drugom kvartalu se vide posljedice zatvaranja postrojenja s prosječno 14% pada BDP-a u drugom kvartalu 2020.godine za članice EU te u Kini je bilježen samo rast od 2.2%, najniži od 1976. godine. Iz primjera prethodnih epidemija/pandemija da se naslutiti kako se ekonomske posljedice i u novoj pandemiji neće moći izbjeći, no postavlja se pitanje u kojoj mjeri i na koji način će se odraziti na svjetsko gospodarstvo. |
| Abstract (english) | The 21st century pandemic, caused by the emergence of the new COVID-19 virus, was preceded by other epidemics/pandemics. The most significant is the plague, the so-called "Black Death", which appeared on a couple of occasions throughout history, and is still known today in the East, and left behind the greatest damage to humanity so far. In addition to making a major impression on human survival, the disease has also led to unexpected economic consequences. The second, the Spanish flu, which so far most closely resembles the COVID-19 situation, appeared in the early 20th century during the First World War. The Spanish flu claimed 50 to 100 million human lives, but that number is difficult to estimate precisely because of the war and has also left economic repercussions. The COVID-19 crisis began in early 2020 when it first appeared in China in Hubei Province, Wuhan City, where the first cases of COVID-19 were recorded, and it is believed that this is where the global spread began, mostly via air and sea routes. So far, more than 25 million cases have been reported worldwide, resulting in more than 843,000 deaths and 16.4 million recovers, with the United States, India, Brazil, Russia and Peru being the most severely affected with 16 million infected people. COVID-19 has encouraged governments to introduce some measures to reduce viral infection, which in terms of the economy has led to a reduction or suspension of exports, layoffs, and a shortage of materials for further production.The first and second quarters show the consequences of plant closures with an average of 14% of GDP declined in the second quarter of 2020 for EU members, and in China, only growth of 2.2% was recorded, the lowest since 1976. From the examples of previous epidemics/pandemics, it can be inferred that the economic consequences of the new pandemic will not be avoidable, but the question arises as to what extent and in what way it will affect the world economy. |
