| Abstract | Ovim radom napravili smo pravni i računovodstveni pregled i značaj stečaja, povijesni pregled i razvoj Altmanova Z-score-a, istražili smo i druge modele za predviđanje poslovnog neuspjeha, te smo finalno istražili jeli model primjenjiv na Hrvatskom tržištu. Prvi dio opisao je metode, ciljeve doprinose rada te hipoteze koje su predmet istraživanja U teorijskom dijelu rada, s obzirom da je Altmanov Z-score, model za predviđanje stečaja, obrađen je stečaj. Objašnjeno je što stečaj znači prema hrvatskom zakonu, a što je stečaj u ekonomskoj teoriji, te je finalno na pravom primjeru pokazano kako izgleda bilanca zdravog društva, te društva u stečaju Drugi dio deskriptivnog dijela rada bio je upoznati se s modelom koji će biti korišten u empirijsko dijelu. Objašnjeno je što je Altmanov Z-score, koje su još verzije bile kroz povijest, kakav je bio rezultat Altmanovog istraživanja, te razrede u koje Altman svrstava svoje rezultate. U empirijskom dijelu definirala se što populacija i uzorak. Nakon čega je napravljen izračun Altmanova Z-score-a i donesen zaključak na razini gospodarstva, a slijedno tomu i za pojedine industrije. Na temelju istraživanja, dolazi se do zaključka je Altmanov Z-score dobar pokazatelj u predviđanju bankrota, no ne i u predviđanju stabilnosti. Također zaključeno je da model nije jednako uspješan među različitim industrijama. |
| Abstract (english) | With this paper, we made a legal and accounting review and significance of bankruptcy, historical review and development of Altman's Z-score, we investigated other models for predicting business failure, and we finally investigated whether the model is applicable in the Croatian market. The first part described the methods, objectives, contribution of the work and the hypotheses that are the subject of research In the theoretical part of the paper, since Altman’s Z-score is a model for predicting bankruptcy, bankruptcy is explaned. It is explained what bankruptcy means according to Croatian law, and what bankruptcy is in economic theory, and finally the real example shows what the balance sheet of a healthy society and a bankrupt company looks like. The second part of the descriptive part of the paper was to get acquainted with the model that will be used in the empirical part. It is explained what Altman's Z-score is, what other versions have been throughout history, what was the result of Altman's research, and the classes into which Altman classifies his results. In the empirical part, the population and the sample were defined. After that, the calculation of Altman's Z-score was made and a conclusion was made at the level of the Croatian economy, and consequently for individual industries. Based on the research, it is concluded that Altman’s Z-score is a good indicator in predicting bankruptcy, but not in predicting stability. It was also concluded that the model is not equally successful among different industries. |
