| Abstract | Od početka 21. stoljeća sektor turizma počinje ponovno dobivati na značaju i pozicionirati se među najvažnije gospodarske djelatnosti Hrvatske. Svi važniji turistički pokazatelji kao što su prihodi od turizma, broj dolazaka i noćenja turista počinju ekspanzivno rasti te se turistički kapacitet Hrvatske sve više povećava. Suočavanjem sa svjetskom financijskom krizom 2008. godine, rast turizma se zaustavlja te se ostvaruje značajan pad turističkih pokazatelja. U narednim godinama dolazi do oporavka turističkog sektora te polaganog rasta sve do službenog izlaska Hrvatske iz recesije. Nakon toga slijedi ponovno razdoblje ekspanzije koje je prekinuto novim šokom odnosno COVID-19 pandemijom. S obzirom na uvedene mjere ograničenja kako u Hrvatskoj tako i u svijetu ostvaruje se značajan pad turističkih pokazatelja, koji se već u narednim godinama oporavljaju i ponovno dostižu pretpandemijsku razinu. Javni dug u tom periodu kontinuirano raste uzlaznom putanjom ali u periodima između šokova odnosno fazama proračunske konsolidacije njegova krivulja ima blaži nagib i manji udjel u BDP-u. Jedan od glavnih uzročnika povećavanja javnoga duga tijekom cijelog perioda su proračunski deficiti koji se akumuliraju tijekom cijeloga period, te zajedno sa kamatama na javni dug predstavljaju glavne determinante rasta javnoga duga. Rastom udjela prihoda od turizma u BDP-u rasla je i njegova važnost u ostvarivanju proračunskih prihoda kojima su se nastojali pokriti proračunski rashodi i uravnotežiti saldo proračuna. Glavne determinante proračunskog deficita preko kojih turizam utječe na javni dug su porezi i državna potrošnja. Oporezivanjem različitim vrstama poreza turističku potrošnju država je tijekom promatranog perioda ostvarivala sve veće porezne prihode te isto tako sve većim investicijama u turistički sektor povećala državnu potrošnju i rashode čije je povećanje bilo mnogo manje od povećanja prihoda. Analizom kretanja prihoda od turizma i javnoga duga daje se jasni zaključak o međusobnoj povezanosti i utjecaja prihoda na javni dug te potvrđuje visoka ovisnost Hrvatske o turističkom sektoru. |
| Abstract (english) | Since the beginning of the 21st century, the tourism sector has begun to regain its importance and position itself among the most important economic activities in Croatia. All the most important tourist indicators such as income from tourism, the number of tourist arrivals and overnight stays are beginning to grow exponentially, and Croatia's tourism capacity is increasing more and more. Facing the world financial crisis in 2008, the growth of tourism stopped and there was a significant drop in tourist indicators. In the following years, the tourism sector will recover and grow slowly until Croatia officially exits the recession. After that, another period of expansion followed, which was interrupted by a new shock, i.e. the COVID-19 pandemic. Considering the restrictive measures introduced both in Croatia and in the world, there is a significant drop in tourism indicators, which are already recovering in the coming years and reaching the pre-pandemic level again. In that period, the public debt continuously grows on an upward trajectory, but in the periods between shocks, that is, the phases of budget consolidation, its curve has a gentler slope and a smaller share in GDP. One of the main causes of the increase in public debt during the entire period is the budget deficits that accumulate throughout the period, and together with the interest on the public debt, represent the main determinants of the growth of the public debt. As the share of income from tourism in the GDP grew, so did its importance in achieving budget revenues, which were used to cover budget expenditures and balance the budget balance. The main determinants of the budget deficit through which tourism affects the public debt are taxes and government spending. By taxing tourist consumption with different types of taxes, the state achieved increasing tax revenues during the observed period, and also with increasing investments in the tourism sector, increased state consumption and expenditures, the increase of which was much smaller than the increase in income. The analysis of the trends in income from tourism and public debt gives a clear conclusion about the mutual connection and the influence of income on public debt and confirms Croatia's high dependence on the tourism sector. |
