| Abstract | U ovom radu smo počeli od samog analiziranja poreznog sustava, što on obuhvaća, kako se kretao sve do danas te njegov značaj za državni proračun u smislu prikupljanja najviše prihoda.
Pratili smo kretanje tri poreza i to dva izravna ( porez na dohodak i porez na dobit) i jedan neizravni (PDV). Prateći podatke iz godišnjaka ministarstva financija zaključili smo da je PDV najizdašniji porez koji prikuplja u prosjeku 60% poreznih prihoda. Prikupili smo podatke o proračunskim deficitima za razdoblje od 1999.-2015. godine te na taj način analizirali njihova kretanja usporedno sa kretanja prihodnog aspekta državnog proračuna točnije poreza.
Cjeline smo podijelili na razdoblje do svjetske krize, za vrijeme svjetske krize te razdoblje ulaska u Europsku uniju. Uočili smo trend koji se javlja u svakim od tih razdoblja gdje se od samog osamostaljenja Hrvatske te uspostavljanje porezne reforme država nalazi u dugu koji se smanjuje sve do početka krize gdje ponovno raste te zatim ulaskom u Europsku uniju se opet smanjuje oporavljajući nas od utjecaja krize. Postavljajući hipoteze morali smo pratiti kretanje proračunskog deficita, zatim kretanje poreznih stopa kao i poreznih prihoda kako bismo mogli napraviti statističku analizu. Praćenjem poreznih stopa promatranih poreza zaključili smo da je jedino PDV pratio proračunski deficit u promjeni porezne stope radi prikupljanja više poreznih prihoda te pored povećanja poreznih stopa zadržava najveći udjel u ukupnim poreznim prihodima gdje su prihodi od samog uvođenja PDV konstantno rasli. Od tri postavljene hipoteze potvrdili smo hipotezu H1. i H2. koristeći statističku analizu linearne regresije te Spearmanov koeficijent korelacije. U prvoj hipotezi smo potvrdili da proračunski deficit ima negativan utjecaj nad povećanje porezne stope PDV-a gdje smo dokazali da što deficit brže raste, porezne stope također rastu. U drugoj hipotezi smo zaključili da povećanjem poreznih stopa se povećavaju i poreznih prihodi. Mjerili smo udjele promatranih poreza te dok se prihod od poreza na dohodak smanjivao, prihod od PDV-a raste pri povećanju stopa, dok kod poreza na dobit također rastu prihodi ali uz konstantu poreznu stopu od 20%. Tako smo jedino na temelju PDV-a imali vjerodostojne podatke i statističke potvrde. U trećoj hipotezi smo pratili porezno opterećenje mjereno kao odnos ukupnih poreznih prihoda i BDP-a, zaključivši da porezni prihodi ne utječu negativno na ukupno porezno opterećenje gdje je zabilježen statistički značaj pad od 0,95%. Zaključno Hrvatska je zemlja sa visokim javnim dugom gdje porezni prihodi prikupljaju najviše prihoda u državni proračun prateći kretnje proračunskog deficita gdje su ti prihodi nedostatni no značajni u
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toj mjeri da se provode konstante izmjene poreznih oblika radi daljnjeg pokušaja prikupljanja još većih prihoda. |
| Abstract (english) | In this paper, we have started from the analysis of the tax system, which includes how it has moved so far and its significance for the state budget in terms of collecting the most revenue.
We followed the movement of three taxes, two direct (income tax and profit tax) and one indirect (VAT). Following the data from the Ministry of Finance's annual report, we concluded that VAT is the most expensive tax that collects on average 60% of tax revenues. We collected data on budget deficits for the period from 1999. to 2015. and thus analyzed their movements in parallel with the movement of the revenue aspect of the state budget to more accurate taxation.
We have allotted the period to the world crisis, during the world crisis and the period of entry into the European Union. We have noted the trend that occurs in each of these periods since Croatia's independence and the establishment of the tax reform of the state are in debt, which is decreasing until the beginning of the crisis, where it re-grows, and then entering the European Union again decreases to recover from the impact of the crisis. By setting hypotheses, we had to monitor the movement of the budget deficit, then move the tax rates as well as tax revenues so that we could make a statistical analysis. By monitoring the tax rates of observed taxes, we concluded that the only VAT was monitored by the budget deficit in the change of tax rate in order to collect more tax revenues and, in addition to increasing tax rates, retained the largest share in total tax revenues, where income from VAT introduction was constantly increasing. Of the three hypothesis we have confirmed H1 hypothesis. and H2. using statistical analysis of linear regression and Spearman correlation coefficient. In the first hypothesis we have confirmed that the budget deficit has a negative impact on the increase in the VAT tax rate where we have proven that the deficit is growing faster, the tax rates also increase. In the second hypothesis, we have concluded that the increase in tax rates also increases tax revenues. We measured the shares of the observed taxes and while income tax revenues declined, VAT revenue grew at an increasing rate, while income taxes also increase revenues but with a constant tax rate of 20%. So based on the only VAT we had credible data and statistical certificates. In the third hypothesis, we monitored the tax burden measured as the ratio of total tax revenues and GDP, concluding that tax revenues did not adversely affect the total tax burden, where statistical significance
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decreased by 0.95%. To conclude, Croatia is a country with high public debt where tax revenue collects the most revenue in the state budget following the movement of the budget deficit where these revenues are insufficient to the extent that the constant changes in tax forms are being carried out for further attempts to collect even higher revenues. |
