| Abstract | Ekonomska i monetarna unija predstavlja koordinaciju ekonomske, fiskalne i monetarne politike te se smatralo da će se stvaranjem EMU-a ukloniti prepreke stvaranju jedinstvenog tržišta i dati poticaj političkoj integraciji. Da bi zemlja postala dijelom europodručja ona mora ispuniti unaprijed utvrđene kriterije, poznate kao kriteriji iz Maastrichta. Četiri su kriterija nominalne konvergencije: kriterij stabilnosti cijena, kriterij državnih financija, kriterij stabilnosti tečaja i kriterij dugoročnih kamatnih stopa. Nominalna konvergencija je ta koja je potrebna za ulazak u eurozonu, dok će realna konvergencija pokazati kolike su koristi i troškovi od pristupanja u EMU. Predmet ovog istraživanja su konvergentna kretanja unutar Ekonomske i monetarne unije, a cilj je bio objasniti kriterije konvergencije i njihov značaj u razvoju zemalja i EMU-a. Rezultati provedenog istraživanja su pokazali da ne postoji statistički značajna linearna veza između BDP-a per capita u PPS-u i pokazatelja nominalne konvergencije, odnosno da ne postoji statistički značajan linearan utjecaj varijabli nominalne konvergencije na varijablu BDP per capita u PPS-u, a to nas navodi na zaključak da nominalna konvergencija ne vodi ka realnoj konvergenciji. Analizom pokazatelja nominalne i realne konvergencije je utvrđeno da obje grupe zemalja, kao i cijela eurozona, ostvaruju konvergenciju u određenim periodima, ali kod niti jednog pokazatelja nije utvrđeno postojanje sigma konvergencije u cijelom promatranom periodu. Kretanje standardnih devijacija pokazatelja nominalne konvergencije starih (EA(12)) i novih (NMS(7)) zemalja članica je na približno sličnim razinama te se razlike među njima smanjuju, dok je razlika između pokazatelja realne konvergencije ovih dviju grupa zemalja i dalje velika, a to nas navodi na zaključak da zemlje eurozone ostvaruju veći stupanja nominalne konvergencije nego realne konvergencije. |
| Abstract (english) | The Economic and Monetary Union is the co-ordination of economic, fiscal and monetary policies, and it was considered that by creating EMU, the obstacles to the creation of a single market and to stimulate political integration would be removed. In order for the country to become part of the euro area, it must meet the criteria set in advance, known as Maastricht criteria. There are four criteria for nominal convergence: the criterion of price stability, the criterion of government finances, the criterion of the stability of the exchange rate and the criterion of long-term interest rates. Nominal convergence is what is needed to enter the euro zone, while real convergence will show how much are the benefits and costs of joining the EMU are. The subject of this research is the convergent movement within the Economic and Monetary Union, and the objective was to explain the convergence criteria and their significance in the development of countries and EMU. The results of the conducted research have shown that there is no statistically significant linear relationship between GDP per capita in PPS and nominal convergence indicators, i.e. that there is no statistically significant linear effect of the nominal convergence variables on the variable GDP per capita in PPS, which suggests that nominal convergence does not lead to real convergence. By analyzing the nominal and real convergence indicators, both groups of countries, as well as the entire eurozone, achieved convergence in certain periods, but none of the indicators showed the existence of sigma convergence throught the observed period. The movement of standard deviations of the nominal convergence indicators of the old (EA(12)) and new (NMS(7)) member states is at approximately similar levels and the differences between them are reduced, while the difference between the real convergence indicator of these two groups of countries is still large, which leads to the conclusion that the euro area countries have a greater degree of nominal convergence than real convergence. |
