| Abstract | Cilj ovog rada bio je istražiti utjecaj nizozemske bolesti i doznaka na aprecijaciju tečaja, nezaposlenost i emigraciju radne snage u tranzicijskim zemljama Europe. Nizozemska bolest označava ekonomski fenomen gdje prekomjerni priljev stranih valuta vodi do aprecijacije domaće valute i ekonomske stagnacije. Doznake su novčani transferi radnika iz inozemstva u domovinu.
Istraživanje je provedeno analizom podataka korištenjem Pearsonovog koeficijenta korelacije i modela višestruke linearne regresije. Kao zavisne varijable korišteni su realni efektivni tečaj (REER), stopa nezaposlenosti i neto migracije, dok su nezavisne varijable uključivale osobne doznake, inozemna direktna ulaganja (FDI), trgovinu, uvjete trgovine (TOT), državnu potrošnju, BDP per capita, inflaciju, minimalnu plaću i GINI indeks, nezaposlenost osoba sa osnovnim obrazovanjem, godišnji rast BDP-a.
Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju srednje intenzivnu pozitivnu povezanost između doznaka i REER-a, potvrđujući hipotezu H1 o utjecaju doznaka na aprecijaciju tečaja kao simptoma nizozemske bolesti. Model višestruke linearne regresije također je potvrdio pozitivan utjecaj doznaka na REER uz mješovite utjecaje ostalih varijabli.
Hipoteza H2 o utjecaju nizozemske bolesti i priliva deviza na nezaposlenost i emigraciju radne snage pokazala je različite rezultate. Negativan utjecaj priliva deviza na nezaposlenost nije podržao hipotezu, i negativan utjecaj doznaka na neto migracije podržao drugi dio hipoteze H2.
Zaključno, priliv doznaka ima značajan utjecaj na aprecijaciju tečaja i emigraciju radne snage, dok utjecaj na nezaposlenost nije potvrđen. |
| Abstract (english) | The aim of this paper was to investigate the impact of Dutch disease and remittances on exchange rate appreciation, unemployment, and labor force emigration in the transition economies of Europe. Dutch disease refers to an economic phenomenon where excessive inflows of foreign currency lead to the appreciation of the domestic currency and economic stagnation. Remittances are monetary transfers sent by workers from abroad to their home country.
The research was conducted through data analysis using Pearson's correlation coefficient and multiple linear regression models. The dependent variables included the real effective exchange rate (REER), unemployment rate, and net migration, while the independent variables comprised personal remittances, foreign direct investment (FDI), trade, terms of trade (TOT), government final consumption, GDP per capita, inflation, minimum wage, GINI index, unemployment of individuals with basic education, and annual GDP growth.
The research results indicate a moderately positive correlation between remittances and REER, supporting hypothesis H1 regarding the impact of remittances on exchange rate appreciation as a symptom of Dutch disease. The multiple linear regression model also confirmed the positive impact of remittances on REER, with mixed influences from other variables.
Hypothesis H2, concerning the impact of Dutch disease and foreign exchange inflows on unemployment and labor force emigration, yielded varying results. The negative impact of foreign exchange inflows on unemployment did not support the hypothesis, whereas the positive impact of remittances on net migration supported the second part of hypothesis H2.
In conclusion, the inflow of remittances has a significant impact on exchange rate appreciation and labor force emigration, while the impact on unemployment was not confirmed. |
