| Sažetak | Mnogobrojna istraživanja pokazala su na primjeru eurozone da dolazi do razdvajanja zemalja na centar i periferiju, pri čemu periferne zemlje prati proces rasta uz makroekonomske neravnoteže (deficite tekuće bilance plaćanja, rast vanjskog duga i volatilnost stope rasta) te jačanje non- tradable sektora. Uočeno je da navedene zemlje u eurozoni strukturno divergiraju i da je mogući učinak toga i realna divergencija. Najčešće se govori da zemlje centra imaju export led growth strategy, dok zemlje periferije svoj model temelje na zaduživanju ili tzv. debt led growth strategy. Cilj ovog rada bio je na temelju dosadašnjih istraživanja i teorijskih koncepata empirijski istražiti suodnos strukturne divergencije odnosno konvergencije i realne konvergencije odnosno divergencije na primjeru EU post tranzicijskih zemalja bez obzira jesu li članice eurozone ili ne. Uočavanje ovog procesa trebalo bi doprinijeti stvaranju politika i instrumenata za nadilaženje spomenutog fenomena u cilju daljnje monetarne integracije i homogenosti eurozone. Ovo istraživanje je empirijski utvrdilo da na primjeru EU post-tranzicijskih zemalja postoji utjecaj strukturne divergencije na realnu divergenciju. Točnije, pokazalo se da specijalizacija strukture gospodarstva prema non-tradable sektorima vodi realnoj divergenciji, odnosno povećavanju jaza između dotične zemlje i „centra“ EU. U ovom istraživanju je Njemačka uzeta kao ogledni primjerak centra EU. Suprotno, istraživanje pokazuje da specijalizacija zemlje prema sektorima tradable dobara ima učinak na smanjivanje razlike između te zemlje i „centra“ EU, odnosno vodi ka realnoj konvergenciji. Iako su EU post-tranzicijske zemlje ušle u EU s različitim gospodarskim strukturama, to ne mijenja činjenicu da bi one dugoročno sve trebale konvergirati prosjeku EU strukturno, realno i nominalno. Podaci pokazuju da se EU post-tranzicijske zemlje još uvijek mogu grupirati relativno homogeno s obzirom na podjelu prema tradable i non-tradable sektorima iako je vidljiva specijalizacija prema non-tradable sektorima. |
| Sažetak (engleski) | Numerous studies have shown, using the Eurozone as an example, that there is a separation of countries into the centre and the periphery, with the countries of the periphery being accompanied by a growth process that is accompanied by macroeconomic imbalances (current account deficits, growth in external debt and volatility in the growth rate) and the strengthening of the non-tradable sector. It has been noted that the aforementioned Eurozone countries are structurally diverging and that the possible consequence of this is real divergence. It is usually said that the countries of the center pursue an export-led growth strategy, while the countries of the periphery base their model on borrowing or the so-called debt-led growth strategy. The aim of this work was to empirically investigate the relationship between structural divergence and real convergence using the example of EU post-transition countries, whether they are members of the Eurozone or not, based on previous research and theoretical concepts. The observation of this process should contribute to the development of strategies and instruments to overcome the aforementioned phenomenon, with the aim of further monetary integration and homogeneity of the Eurozone. In this study, it was empirically established that there is an influence of structural divergence on real divergence in the example of EU post transition countries. More specifically, it was shown that the specialisation of the economic structure in non-tradable sectors leads to real divergence i.e., a widening of the gap between the country in question and Germany. In this study, Germany is used as an example of the centre of the EU. On the contrary, the research shows that a country's specialisation in tradable goods sectors reduces the gap between that country and the EU "centre" i.e., leads to real convergence. Although the EU successor countries entered the EU with different economic structures, this does not change the fact that in the long run they should converge structurally, in real and nominal terms, towards the EU average. The data shows that the post-transition EU countries can still be grouped relatively homogeneously in terms of the breakdown by tradable and non-tradable sectors, although specialisation by non-tradable sectors is discernible. |
